In the last decade we've watched the National Football League evolve. The casual fan, likely getting their opinions from the so called experts on ESPN, will argue whether or not a team is a Super Bowl contender simply based on their offensive fire power. For instance, Wes Welker leaves New England and goes to Denver and all of a sudden Denver seems to be the unanimous favorite. In all likelihood they'll lead the league in offense and finish the regular season atop the conference, however, does their receiving corp really make them a lock to win the Super Bowl? In my opinion, no it does not. There is and always has been a certain formula for winning a championship. Let me explain.
Lets start at the beginning of the 2000's. In the 2000 season the Baltimore Ravens were a mess at the quarterback position. The original starter, Tony Banks, was replaced mid season by Trent Dilfer, a man who's IQ for the position is second to none but his abilities were average at best. So with the most important position on the field in shambles theres no way they could be contenders. Oh wait, they defeated the New York Giants 34-7 in Super Bowl 35. How is this possible? For one the Ravens had the luxury of fielding what might be the best defense to ever hit the grid-iron. Led by Ray Lewis, they were loaded with veterans who knew how to make plays, they were ferocious, and were virtually impossible to score against. They gave the offense the peace of mind in knowing that putting up 17 points on any given sunday would be enough to win. Led by the mental toughness, composure, and brains of Quarterback Trent Dilfer, the Ravens offense was very efficient. They were able to get tough yards on the ground while in turn setting up the play action. When its run the way it's designed to, that style of offense enables a team to control the clock and the tempo of the game while also keeping the ball away from the opposition, although with that defense the opposition didn't stand a chance regardless. Come playoff time thats more important than putting up 45 points each week simply because you just won't do that against the defenses you're going to see in the playoffs.
The following season was a special one which would ultimately serve as the birth of a dynasty. At the beginning of the 2001 season Tom Brady was Drew Bledsoe's errand boy and the St. Louis Rams were deemed unstoppable due to their loaded offense. We all know what happened. Bledsoe gets hurt, Brady steps in and everything changes. After hanging in there only to lose a close, hard fought game in late November to St. Louis, the Patriots shocked the world and defeated the "greatest show on turf" at the Super Dome in Super Bowl XXXVI. How did they do it?
When Bledsoe went down they were forced to adapt on offense. For the most part they were a run first offense who's passing game featured a very effective play action and had great success while Brady was under center as opposed to going from the shot gun. Their receiving corp consisted of Troy Brown, David Patten, and Charles Johnson. None of those names jumped out at the average fan at the time but they were all solid, smart, and reliable. When Brady would turn to them to make a play, they made the play. The offense wasn't one that would light up the scoreboard. They benefited from a defense that kept them in the game week after week.
The Patriots defense didn't blow teams away with their speed but they were smart and consisted of very big guys up front. Their size and smarts enabled them to be effective in getting to the quarterback, hitting him, and making him uncomfortable which will keep offense from getting into their groove. They were loaded with guys who had a tendency to always be around the ball. They made all the big plays when they had to. The defense was by no means a shut down unit, they played more of a "bend but don't break" style. This means that they would give up yards, however, when it came down to it they were very tough to score against. Ultimately keeping the opponent out of the end zone is all that matters.
The Patriots continued to achieve great success in the years following that 2001 season. Their philosophy never changed. They played tough defense and controlled the game on offense. Their running back, Antoine Smith, wasn't a super star but he was a physically imposing figure who kept his feet moving and fought for every yard. They had two up and coming receivers in David Givens and Deion Branch as well as solid Veterans like Troy Brown and David Patten. They didn't set the stat sheet on fire, they just played football. They had the ability to adapt to the flow of any game on any given week in order to come out with the win.
In the 2003 season the Indianapolis Colts, led by the legendary Peyton Manning came into Foxboro for the AFC Championship Game. The Colts got there by blowing the doors off the opposition with their potent offense, including a road win in Arrow Head stadium the week before in the Divisional Game against the Kansas City Chiefs. All of the experts predicted the Colts to come into Gillette Stadium and run all over the Patriots, saying that we couldn't keep up with their offensive attack. In theory they had a point but thats why they play the games...
The Patriots got the ball first and scored a touchdown on the opening drive against the weak Indianapolis defense. Peyton Manning took the Colts right down the field in his first drive of the game against a Patriots defense which was ranked number one in the NFL. Just when it seemed as though Manning would have no problem evening the score, New England safety Rodney Harrison picked him off in the end zone causing the drive to come to an abrupt end. The Patriots defeated an "unstoppable" Colts team that day while only allowing fourteen points.
The key to the Patriots victory wasn't keeping up with the offense of the Colts, it was about stopping their attack and keeping Peyton Manning off the field. They were able to run it down the throats of the soft Indy defense. In doing so they continued to keep taking time off the clock, thus controlling the tempo and keeping the ball away from Manning. Their defensive game plan was too much for Manning and his offense to handle. They took every opportunity to hit the Indy receivers, it was the equivalent of an all out assault. New England cornerback Ty Law picked off Peyton Manning three times. When it was all said and done Ty Law caught more passes from Manning than Colts super star receiver Marvin Harrison. The Patriots offense only scored one touchdown, however, they did put Adam Vinatieri in a position to kick five field goals as well as converting a safety on a bad snap during an Indianapolis attempt to punt the ball on fourth down. But wait, isn't football all about offense?
The following season Peyton Manning and his Indianapolis Colts invaded Gillette Stadium once again, this time they came to play in the Divisional round. It was the same situation, their offense was white hot and they brought their soft defense along for the ride. No one gave the Patriots a chance and the Colts even disrespected the Patriots by pre-ordering a an undisclosed amount of tickets to the AFC Championship Game which would be held the following week in Pittsburgh. Once again the Patriots suffocated the Indy offense while only allowing three points. It was one of the most dominating defensive performances in recent memory.
The Patriots came in with the same game plan and they executed it to perfection. The first half was played in a snow storm so both offenses had a tough time moving the ball, however, the Patriots dominated time of possession with their ability to keep the ball on the ground, kill the clock, and keep Peyton Manning off the field. Going into halftime the scored was tied at 3. The second half was dominated by New England on both sides of the ball. Their offense embarked on a series of long drives which not only kept the ball away from Manning, but more importantly resulted in putting points on the board. The defense continued to make life hard on Manning while coming up with big plays in key moments. One drive in particular the Colts were starting to find a rhythm. Eventually Manning completed a little dump off pass to his running back, Edgerrin James. Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi arrived just at the right moment to get his hands in on the ball. James and Bruschi went to the ground battling for possession of the ball, ultimately Bruschi ripped it right out of James' hands, ending the Colts drive and putting Tom Brady back on the field. Brady drove down the field and scored a touchdown which iced the game.
The point i'm making here is that you can't and won't win with just offense. It takes a team effort and a certain formula. If the Patriots entered the match up in either season with the intentions of matching Manning score for score then the Colts would've defeated New England both times. Being able to control the tempo of the game while keeping the ball away from the opposing offense is more important than going out trying to match them in a shoot out.
To further prove my point we'll fast forward a few years. Following their gut wrenching loss on the road to Indianapolis in the 2006 AFC Championship Game the Patriots reacted by focusing that offseason on adopting the Colts offensive philosophy. They acquired receivers Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth. They overstocked on offensive firepower. It definitely worked for them that regular season, they finished 16-0 and set all sorts of records on offense. When playoff time came around they were a different team. They had a tough time in the Divisional Round against the Jacksonville Jaguars and were very fortunate to escape victorious in the AFC Championship Game the following week against the San Diego Chargers. The Patriots couldn't do anything right on offense and ultimately the mistakes made by the Chargers allowed the Patriots to advance to Super Bowl 42. Entering that game the 18-0 Patriots were an unrecognizable bunch. They were extremely cocky, arrogant, and in my opinion they truly thought they could just show up and beat the New York Giants, a team that nearly beat them in week 17 which would've ended their perfect season.
What the Patriots ran into that night was a team whose style of play was a mirror image to that of the Patriots prior to their change in philosophy. It makes sense seeing how Giants coach Tom Coughlin comes from the same coaching "family tree" as Bill Belichick. They're both disciples of Bill Parcells.
The Giants had a strong rushing attack with Tiki Barber while being solid in the passing game. They played tough hard nose defense and they had the ability to control the game on offense. The Giants defense devoured Tom Brady that night and disrupted the rhythm of the New England offense. When New York had the ball they were able to hang on to it, kill clock, and at the very least give their defense enough time to catch their breath. This wasn't the case for the Patriots. Brady couldn't keep his offense on the field. Earlier that week during media day, Tom Brady was asked how he felt about the prediction offered by Giants wide receiver Amani Toomer who said the Giants would win 24-17. Brady chuckled and replied "we're only going to score seventeen points?...ok" Brady and his record breaking offense were ultimately held under seventeen points while only putting up fourteen. The Giants defeated New England by a score of 17-14. The Patriots style of play not only cost them not just one Super Bowl, but two.
In Super Bowl 46 it was the same story. Once again the match up was the Giants and the Patriots. The Patriots were once again an offensive juggernaut with a vulnerable defense. As was the case with Super Bowl 42, the Patriots advanced to Super Bowl 46 because of the mistakes made by their opponent in the AFC Championship Game. Although they had the lead for the majority of the game, their philosophy cost them the Lombardi Trophy yet again.
Lets focus on the fourth quarter. The Giants had begun to chip away at the Patriots lead. Anyone who understands football knows that the Patriots were in a situation where they needed to take control. They had a running back in Green-Ellis who literally had never fumbled the ball in his career. Their defense was fatigued and the Giants offense had found their groove. In that situation, running the football would not only take valuable time off the clock, it would also give their defense a chance to regroup and refocus. Instead Brady continued to throw the ball on first and second down. It's anyones guess as to exactly how much time he left on the clock towards the end of that game but I've concluded that in any of their final drives, had the Patriots kept the ball on the ground on any four plays when they opted to pass instead, they would have taken a little over two minutes off the clock. When you run the ball the clock continues to tick, however when you pass the ball, any incompletion whether it be broken up by the defender, dropped by the receiver ,or just thrown off target by the quarterback, will result in a stoppage of the clock. Had they taken that two minutes off the clock then Eli Manning wouldn't have been able to lead his team on yet another game winning drive to defeat New England for the second time in a Super Bowl. Isn't it funny that the little brother of Peyton Manning did to Tom Brady two times exactly what Brady had done to big brother Peyton on two occasions in the past. How can you not love sports.
Building your team around a high powered passing attack will allow you to achieve great success year in and year out in the regular season. In reality you won't face equal competition more than three to five times in any regular season. Although there is no such thing as an easy game in the NFL, a team with an explosive offense will more often than not come out on top. That being said once January comes rolling around it's a different game. You're matched up against a playoff caliber team each and every week. Playoff teams play good defense and good defense always has the ability to stifle good offense. Thats just how it is. If you can't play a balanced style of offense to keep the opposing defense honest, control the ball, win time of possession, and most importantly play good defense you won't have much playoff success.
Refer to any Super Bowl Champion this decade for proof. When the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl 43 they pounded the rock with Willie Parker to set up their passing game which was good but not explosive. Their defense was vicious. They were a complete team. Arizona was built around Quarterback Kurt Warner and his two stud receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. The Cardinals found themselves in a sizable hole at halftime, however, they were able to make a comeback in that game and even take a late lead. As was the case in the first half, the Cardinals defense couldn't stop Ben Roethlisberger as he lead the Steelers on a Super Bowl winning drive in the final two minutes.
Now lets look at the New Orleans Saints who won it the following season. They could put up points with the best of them but they did it in a balanced way. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush were playmakers in the backfield which helped pave the way for Drew Brees to have a to pick apart opposing defenses with his receivers. The Saints offense didn't win them that Super Bowl though, it was their defense. They had five takeaways in the NFC Championship Game, including the biggest play of their season when Tracy Porter picked off a pass from Brett Favre in the final minute of regulation. The Vikings were within range to kick a game winning field goal. It's simple, if Porter doesn't make that play then Minnesota goes to the Super Bowl, assuming Longwell makes the kick. The other four were a combination of forced fumbles and instances where Vikings running back Adrian Peterson just lost control of the ball, regardless, New Orleans came up with the ball everytime and had they not, it's likely Minnesota runs away with that game. In the Super Bowl, the Colts were driving for a game tying touchdown late in the second half when once again it was Tracy Porter who made a play when he intercepted a pass from Peyton Manning. Porter took it the other way for a touchdown and blew the game open. It wasn't just that one play, the Saints defense stole the show by slowing down the Colts attack, regardless the credit went to their offense.
Now we'll take a look at Green Bay in Super Bowl 45. In a season that was nearly devastated by injuries, young players made the most of their opportunity and stepped up big on both sides of the ball. Everyone talks about the play of Aaron Rodgers during that playoff run and rightfully so, however, the Packers run began when James Starks emerged as a reliable, borderline work horse in the backfield. They were a one dimensional team on offense until Starks came into his own, once he did they took off. On defense it was guys like Desmond Bishop, Sam Shields, and Tramon Williams who came out of nowhere to play big roles in winning a championship. The bottom line is that guys stepped up and made plays on defense allowing them to stop the opposing offense while even scoring on defense in every playoff game, while James Starks gave the Packers the dimension they were missing on offense which made them balanced and ultimately complete. Their playoff run was dominated by takeaways on defense, scoring on defense, and running a balanced offense to keep defenses guessing. Thats what made them a championship team, leading to their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl. It wasn't simply the play of Aaron Rodgers because without a viable threat in the run game, defenses know what Rodgers is going to do before he does it.
A perfect example would be the next two seasons for Green Bay. Their ground game was ineffective and virtually non existent. They had regular season for the ages in 2011 finishing with a record of 15-1, however, they proceeded to get flat out dominated on their home field by the eventual champion New York Giants in the Divisional Playoff. All the Giants had to do was disrupt the passing attack of Green Bay. They had the benefit of being able to put all of their focus towards slowing down Aaron Rodgers because the running game for Green Bay in no way warranted being labeled as a threat. Regardless of regular season statistics an offense that is one dimensional won't take any team far in the playoffs.
If you haven't figured it out already, this high powered, deep threat, spread offense isn't the way to win championships. I'll admit it's intoxicating to watch, however, when it comes to my team (New England) I don't want any part of playing that style. You'll win a Super Bowl with David Givens and Troy Brown but not with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Givens and Brown were tough, competitive, and always made the big play. Diva receivers like Moss are ineffective against a cornerback who will jam them at the line and play physical and you'll see that type of cornerback nine times out of ten in the playoffs. Wes Welker, although he's as tough as they come, has a track record of choking in big moments. That can't be argued. In 2007 he wasn't the same in the playoffs, although he did catch a TD in the AFC Championship, he also dropped balls. 2011 he had a few drops in the AFC Championship, which was a tight game from start to finish. Any Patriots fan still remembers that borderline traumatic moment when he dropped the first down late in the fourth quarter in Super Bowl 46 against the Giants. If he catches that ball then the game is over. Instead it bounces right off his hands. Last season he had multiple drops against Houston in the Divisional Round as well as a few game changing drops in the AFC Championship loss to Baltimore. As far as I'm concerned, his one hundred or more receptions a year are worthless if you aren't hoisting the Lombardi Trophy once time runs out in the Super Bowl. That production can be made up by evenly distributing the ball.
The fact of the matter is that having a pass heavy spread offense will sell tickets but it won't win titles. Last time I checked, when we play sports we play to win. Obviously winning is about scoring more than the opponent, however, what that really means is you have to put enough points on the board to surpass what your defense allows. When you're ahead by one or two scores late in the game the objective isn't to add to the lead, it's to take the time off the clock that the opposing offense needs in order to overcome their deficit. Without balance on offense that's a monumental task. This is why the current "spread offense" era of the NFL is simply just a fad. At the moment it's tough to stop but it's just a matter of time until coaches league wide find a counter measure to stop the spread up tempo attack.
In my opinion, any team that resorts back to the traditional way of playing "winning football" will be so far ahead of the game. Not only will they have success in the current day, they'll also be successful when teams league wide try to model after your ways. A good amount of teams will have to take a step back in order to move forward.
I should note that in order to sustain long term success you need a great quarterback. The way I see it, the teams that obtain players based mainly on talent will also be the ones who tend to chose the wrong man to play quarterback. They'll put too much stock on physical attributes such as the length of his arms and even his arm strength rather than looking at things such as his success in college, his drive, and most importantly his intelligence. Tom Brady for example, doesn't have the athleticism, his body didn't fit the part, his arm wasn't strong enough, and he was too slow. He was nothing but successful when he started in college for the University of Michigan, he's very intelligent, his determination can be matched but no one is driven more than he is, he's as good a competitor as you'll find and despite his lack of athleticism he's one of the most elusive quarterbacks while in the pocket and his arm strength is right there with anyone in this league. Maybe my next post will argue why I should be in charge of personnel moves for many teams rather than who ever currently holds the position.
